What is the most effective method for predicting future stock prices based on historical data, and how accurate are these predictions compared to other forecasting models?
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- What does the y -intercept on the graph of a logistic equation correspond to for a population modeled by that equation?How can you evaluate the accuracy of a forecast model?In predicting a person’s income, identify two possible quantitative predictor variables and two possible qualitative predictor variables.
- What is an economic model? Discuss the relevance of models to economic analysisCanton Supplies, Inc., is a service firm that employs approximately 100 people. Because of the necessity of meeting monthly cash obligations, the chief financial officer wants to develop a forecast of monthly cash requirements. Because of a recent change in equipment and operating policy, only the past seven months of data are considered relevant. The change in operations has had a great impact on cash flow. What forecasting model do you recommend?Discuss two extensions to the original GARCH (p,q) model and explain additional characteristics of financial data they might be able to capture.
- Canton Supplies, Inc., is a service firm that employs approximately 100 people. Because of the necessity of meeting monthly cash obligations, the chief financial officer wants to develop a forecast of monthly cash requirements. Because of a recent change in equipment and operating policy, only the past seven months of data are considered relevant. The change in operations has had a great impact on cash flow. What forecasting model do you recommend? Use the Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Excel templates or other Excel tools to help you answer this question. Cash Required Cash Required Month ($1,000) Month ($1,000) 1 194 5 235 2 217 6 244 3 215 7 203 4 275 Find the best number of months to use in a moving average forecast based on MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. Number of months MSE 2 3 4 The model is the best. Find the best single exponential smoothing model by…A research analyst is trying to determine whether a firm’s price-earnings (P/E) and price-sales (P/S) ratios can explain the firm’s stock performance over the past year. A P/E ratio is calculated as a firm’s share price compared to the income or profit earned by the firm per share. Generally, a high P/E ratio suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower P/E ratio. The P/S ratio is calculated by dividing a firm’s share price by the firm’s revenue per share for the trailing 12 months. In short, investors can use the P/S ratio to determine how much they are paying for a dollar of the firm’s sales rather than a dollar of its earnings (P/E ratio). In general, the lower the P/S ratio, the more attractive the investment. The accompanying table shows the year-to-date (YTD) returns and the P/E and P/S ratios for a portion of the 30 firms included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.…The ABC Company is involved in the production and selling of consumer goods, particularly beauty products such as bath soap and shampoo and had registered a positive profit growth for the last 10 years. However, the current year seems to be different from those years as the company is expecting a decline in profit; which is estimated to be about 70% below the target. The manager now is in a dilemma … asking himself/herself “What happened, why this decline in profit?” The Manager then asked the company Accountant to give him/her the data on sales and advertising cost for the last 10 years – he/she wants these data to determine whether the company can live without advertising, as advertising cost happens to be substantial. Justify your answer by doing as step-by-step procedure in Correlation Analysis using a 0.05 level of significance. The data are as follows –
- A FiveThirtyEight.com article reports that “Horror movies get nowhere near as much draw at the box office as the big-time summer blockbusters or action/adventure movies ... but there’s a huge incentive for studios to continue pushing them out. The return-on-investment potential for horror movies is absurd.” To investigate how the return-on-investment compares between genres and how this relationship has changed over time, an introductory statistics student fit a model predicting the ratio of gross revenue of movies from genre and release year for 1,070 movies released between 2000 and 2018. Using the plots given below, determine if this regression model is appropriate for these dataAztec Industries has developed a forecasting model that was used to forecast during a 10-month period. The forecasts and actual demand were as follows: Measure the accuracy of the forecast by using MAD, MAPD, and cumulative error. Does the forecast method appear to be accurate?Assume you are an executive of a large transportation company, and your firm's profit is highly sensitive to fuel cost. The price of gasoline and diesel changes daily, however, your customers expect to be quoted a price for delivery services days, weeks, and sometimes, MONTHS in advance. Therefore, your firm relies heavily on forecasting the price of fuel. Which method of forecasting might you use, qualitative or quantitative? And finally, what are the limitations to business forecasting.