The following table represents sales data for milk (in hundred liters0 sold by a grocery. Do the computations to fill out the table and answer the following questions: 1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models you use for the given time series data? Why? A. Naïve Approach B. 5-month SMA model; C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; or D. ES model with a = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month. NOTE: In answering item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e. not just "SMA mode" but "SMA model with n = ..."; not just "WMA model" but "WMA model with weights..."; not just "ES model", "ES model with a = ...". 2. Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models above. 3. Based on your decision in Item 1, what should be the forecast for Month 11? Actual 100 liters Demand SMA F WMA NA |A -F| ES Month 100 liters F JA-F| F |A -F| F A -F| 1 39 47 3 39 4 44 49 48 7 45 56 53 10 61 11 MAD
The following table represents sales data for milk (in hundred liters0 sold by a grocery. Do the computations to fill out the table and answer the following questions: 1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models you use for the given time series data? Why? A. Naïve Approach B. 5-month SMA model; C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; or D. ES model with a = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month. NOTE: In answering item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e. not just "SMA mode" but "SMA model with n = ..."; not just "WMA model" but "WMA model with weights..."; not just "ES model", "ES model with a = ...". 2. Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models above. 3. Based on your decision in Item 1, what should be the forecast for Month 11? Actual 100 liters Demand SMA F WMA NA |A -F| ES Month 100 liters F JA-F| F |A -F| F A -F| 1 39 47 3 39 4 44 49 48 7 45 56 53 10 61 11 MAD
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 26P: The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel...
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