Based on the following payoff table, answer the following: High Low 90 -10 70 40 Lease 60 55 Prior Probability 0.4 0.6 The maximum likelihood strategy is: Alternative Buy Rent
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- Alternative Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 State of Nature Outcome 1 ($) 800 500 700 0.62 Probability according to the payoff table? OEMV (Alternative 1) = $900 EMV (Alternative 3) is the highest EMV EMV (Alternative 2) = EMV (Alternative 3) EMV (Alternative 1) is the highest EMV Outcome 2 ($) 1000 1200 900 0.38 Which of the following statements is correctA. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 75 -10 Rent 70 30 Lease 50 35 Prior Probability 0.5 0.5 Using Baye's Decision Rule, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Best decision Рayof
- A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of sixmonths. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as thefixed costs of the venture as shown below:Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost Probability100 000 0.3 K 7 0.5 K400 000 0.2 Page 5 of 80 000 0.6 K 5 0.5 K450 000 0.560 000 0.1 K500 000 0.31.0 1.0 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contributionB-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decenaine the cousen dagram. 60 90 60 1/3 (45) 45 99 40 50 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50M. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a…
- For the following payoff table, what alternative should be chosen if you are following a Maximin strategy? alternative. yes. No small. 10. 30 Medium 20 40 medium Large 30 45 large 40 35 extra large 60 20 prior probability 0.3 0.7 a.Medium Large b.Medium c.Small d.Extra Large e.Large2. A city is holding an annual marathon event and wants to produce t-shits. Alfonso was able to obtain previous years' demand and probability data as given in below table. The selling price is $10, cost is $5, and the salvage value is $1. Calculate all payoff numbers in the table and profit. Show work. How many shirts should they prepare? Prepare 1000 Prepare 2000 Prepare 3000 Demand=1000| Demand=2000 Demand=3000 30% 35% 35% Profit ISaved Help Save & Exit Sub ed: Chapter 9 Decision Analys.. i You have determined that your risk tolerance is 90. Calculate your utility for the following payoffs: (Round your answers to 2 decima places.) Payoff Utility 13 23 45
- An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 95 10 Rent 65 35 Lease 45 50 Prior Probability 0.8 0.2 Using Baye's Decision Rule, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Best decision Payoff Prev 1 of 5 Next >A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 90 10 Rent 60 35 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximax criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision Payoff 3 of 5